Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

There’s no time like the present, so the famous saying goes. And that’s certainly true when it comes to the good inflation news we saw last week. But, remember, things with inflation could change in the future as the economy continues to try to climb out of the recession…which could have a negative impact on Bonds and home loan rates. Here’s what you need to know.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July was unchanged, and, as you can see in the chart below (view on the PDF version of this newsletter), the year-over-year CPI fell 2.1%, the largest 12-month decline since 1950.

There was also good news on inflation last week from the Labor Department. Worker Productivity came in better than expected, rising at its fastest pace in 6 years, as companies cut costs and try to maximize output from their current workforce. This efficiency helps curb inflation, which is good for Bonds and home loan rates.

So how does this news tie in with the economy overall? For one thing, consider last week’s Retail Sales Report, which showed that Retail Sales dropped in July by 0.1%, well below the 0.8% gain that was expected. This report negated the better than expected Wal-Mart second quarter earnings report and signals that consumers are still saving more than spending.

Although low consumer spending may seem like a bad thing, it is actually not such bad news in terms of inflation because of a little known (and rarely discussed) but critical facet of the economy called the velocity of money.

The velocity of money concept is simple. It goes like this: when you buy a pair of shoes, the owner of the shoe store takes that profit and buys a big screen TV, then the TV store owner buys something else, etc. The same dollar passes through the economy over and over again, triggering growth, jobs and, ultimately, inflation. The latest Retail Sales Report tells us that the velocity of money effect has been stagnant…that shoe store owner is not running out to buy a big screen TV with the profits. Once consumer spending begins to increase and the velocity of money increases, inflation is likely to follow. This will be something to look for as the economy continues to stabilize.

Something else to look for is the approaching end of the Fed’s Bond purchase program. Home loan rates have stayed historically low since the program began in January. So, this is another variable that could push Bonds down and home loan rates up in the future.

Bonds and rates did manage to end last week better than where they began, but there was a great deal of volatility along the way. Give me a call if you want to look at your situation and see if now is the time for you to act.

Read the entire article here.