SFResidence is part of the TRI Coldwell Banker office at 1699 Van Ness in San Francisco which is one of the premier offices in the City and has the market share numbers to prove it. We have the most elite agents selling real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area. As a result, our office posts some impressive numbers.

Steady is the word for our activity. Winter is on its way and our market is still going strong. Could it be that the lull we had in summer nets out to a busier end of the year? Whatever it is, we are thankful San Francisco is not having the downturn that other areas are having.

Here are the numbers for the week of 10/27/10:

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr.Weeks says about last week’s activity:

“DOUBLE, DOUBLE TOIL AND TROUBLE; FIRE BURN AND CAULDRON BUBBLE…” No, the witches from Shakespeare’s “Macbeth” weren’t talking about the economy or the labor market – but economic reports of late are indeed swirling about as if in a cauldron, with a potent mix of both tricks and treats. One report will show improvement for the economy, while another tells a more negative tale. So what news came about this week, and what impact did it have on home loan rates?
 
Last week, there was reasonably good news on the housing front, as Housing Starts for September were up 0.3%, to a seasonally adjusted 610,000 unit pace, which was higher than expectations of 579,000. The good news is that this represents the third consecutive month of expansion and actually the highest level of Housing Starts since April.

Yet, while this is an encouraging sign and does suggest some stabilization in housing, we can’t break out the party hats just yet. The improvement in Housing Starts is coming off of very depressed levels… and additionally, Building Permits, which are a sign of future construction, came in at 539,000, which was below expectations and also the lowest level we’ve seen in more than a year. The bottom line for housing is that people need to gain back real confidence and security about their job and economic prospects before we’ll see a marked turn around.

Speaking of that important job market, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims were 452,000 – and Jobless Claims have been stuck near that 450,000 mark for a long time – and there will be no meaningful decrease in the Unemployment Rate until Initial Jobless Claims reach and start moving below the 400,000 level. Overall, we still have 8.5 million people collecting some sort of unemployment benefits, so we’ve still got a ways to go before we’re out of the woods.

Reports on housing, manufacturing, jobs, and inflation are a big part of what will guide the Fed’s ultimate decision regarding the next round of Quantitative Easing (QE2), and a formal announcement is expected during the Fed’s next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on November 3rd. Remember that QE is the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds, in a bid to keep interest rates low and therefore stimulate the economy. It’s important to note that QE may also devalue the Dollar, and boost our economy through making our exports relatively cheaper for foreign buyers. And this is not a bad thing, but we have to be aware that while more QE might provide an initial decline for home loan rates, the devaluation of the Dollar will ultimately drive rates higher. I will be watching this situation closely in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, last week’s news caused both ups and downs for Bonds and home loan rates, and they ultimately ended the week about the same as where they began. If you – or a client, friend, family member, neighbor, coworker – would like to learn more about taking advantage of historically low home loan rates, please don’t hesitate to call or email me. It would be an honor to provide a free consultation for you or any of your contacts.

HALLOWEEN MAY BE A BIT SPOOKY…BUT A CYBER ATTACK ON YOUR COMPUTER IS DOWNRIGHT GHOULISH! CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW FOR SOME SIMPLE STEPS TO HELP KEEP YOUR DATA SAFE.

Read the entire article and see the graphs here.

- Foster Weeks

SFResidence is part of the TRI Coldwell Banker office at 1699 Van Ness in San Francisco which is one of the premier offices in the City and has the market share numbers to prove it. We have the most elite agents selling real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area. As a result, our office posts some impressive numbers.

As Fall gets underway, we are having some of the warmest weather of the year. This is usually good for sales which seem to be holding steady.

Here are the numbers for the week of 10/13/10:

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

“EVERYBODY’S WORKING FOR THE WEEKEND….” (Loverboy, 1981) Or… are they? Unfortunately, many folks out there these days sure wish they were working at all… and the Labor Department reported last Friday that the US lost 95,000 jobs in September. What else did the Jobs Report say and what could the news mean for home loan rates? Read on for details.

A closer look at the Jobs Report for September shows that 159,000 of the jobs lost were government workers, many of which are the unwinding of the temporary census hires. The more important private sector added 64,000 jobs – but still not great, and also below the 74,000 expected. But this number confirms the thought that the economy, or the Job market, is stabilizing and perhaps even improving, albeit it at a very gradual pace. More on why this is so important in a minute.

The Jobs Report also showed that the Unemployment Rate remained at 9.6%, just below the 9.7% anticipated. However, it’s likely the actual rate of unemployment is higher. Why? Because if an unemployed individual does not seek employment for four weeks, they are removed from the count of the “officially unemployed.” And with unemployment benefits available for about 2 years, it increases an unemployed individual’s chances of becoming less motivated to look for a job, until the benefits are close to running out.

This can skew the headline Unemployment Rate, and is evidenced by the sharp rise in the overall unemployment rate or “U6″ measurement of unemployment, which stands at 17.1%. The U6 rate accounts for these discouraged workers who have not sought employment for the past four weeks, as well as those who have accepted part-time employment but would prefer to be working full-time.

Now, back to the question of why signs of good – or bad – economic news are particularly important of late. The Fed will be watching the various economic reports very closely over the next few weeks in advance of their next regularly scheduled meeting on November 2-3, as they are considering a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) to ensure that our slowing economy does not slow even further. If the economic reports that are ahead are more negative than positive, this will increase the likelihood of more QE… but it’s not a foregone conclusion at this point in the least.

So what does all this have to do with home loan rates? If the economic news continues to be soft and the Fed does go through with another round of QE, Bond prices and home loan rates may initially improve for two reasons. First, if the economic data is weak leading up to an announcement – that soft economic news tends to be bad for Stocks, but good for Bonds and therefore home loan rates. Additionally, Bonds would improve simply because the announcement of QE would include large Bond purchases. But keep in mind that the key word is “initially.” Even though Bonds and home loan rates could initially improve, the eventual softening of the Dollar, rising commodity prices, and rise in Stock prices would become a drag on Bonds, which would negatively impact home loan rates.

We’ll see what happens in the coming weeks leading up to the Fed’s next meeting on November 2-3. But last week, meanwhile, the news had a positive impact on Bonds and home loan rates, as they ended the week about .125 to .25 percent better than where they began.

If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about taking advantage of historically low home loan rates, please don’t hesitate to call or email me as soon as possible. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to talk to them free of charge.

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Read the entire article and see the graphs here.

- Foster Weeks

SFResidence is part of the TRI Coldwell Banker office at 1699 Van Ness in San Francisco which is one of the premier offices in the City and has the market share numbers to prove it. We have the most elite agents selling real estate in the San Francisco Bay Area. As a result, our office posts some impressive numbers.