Despite slow job growth, Americans’ attitudes about homeownership, the economy, and personal finances continue to move incrementally in a positive direction, according to results from Fannie Mae’s April 2012 National Housing Survey.  The continued stabilization of consumer attitudes coupled with growth in areas such as home price expectations, whether it is a good time to sell one’s home, direction of the economy, and the percentage of Americans who saw an increase in their personal income indicate an alignment of factors that may influence Americans’ decision making about purchasing a home.

On average, Americans expect home prices to increase 1.3 percent over the next 12 months (the highest value yet recorded), while the percentage of Americans who say it is a good time to sell their home continued to rise to 15 percent in April (up from low, flat levels during 2011).  In turn, confidence in the economy’s direction rose to a survey all-time high in April (hitting 37 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from last month).  Another positive trend is the increased share of those who reported their income as “significantly higher” from twelve months ago, which is now at the highest level recorded over the past year and 7 percentage points higher than those who reported income as “significantly lower” (the largest difference between the two since the survey began).

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined slightly in March, was virtually unchanged in April. The Index now stands at 69.2 (1985=100), down slightly from 69.5 in March. The Expectations Index declined to 81.1 from 82.5, while the Present Situation Index improved to 51.4 from 49.9 last month.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in April, with those claiming business conditions are “good” increasing to 15.3 percent from 14.3 percent.  However, those claiming business conditions are “bad” edged up to 33.5 percent from 33.2 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market remained mixed. Those stating jobs are “hard to get” declined to 37.5 percent from 40.7 percent, while those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 8.4 percent from 9.0 percent.

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Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined to 25 in April, the first decline in seven months, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The decline brings the index back to where it was in January, which was the highest level since 2007.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Each of the index’s components registered declines in April. The component gauging current sales conditions and the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months each fell three points, to 26 and 32, respectively, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell four points to 18.

Regionally, the HMI results were somewhat mixed in April, with the West, which includes California, remaining steady at 32.

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Mortgage delinquencies continued a downward trend and were substantially below year-ago levels, while sales of existing homes in January and February marked the strongest start to a year since 2007, according to the Obama administration’s March housing scorecard.

However, data on home prices changed little from the previous month – marking a fifth month of seasonal lows.

The March Housing Scorecard features key data on the health of the housing market and the impact of the Administration’s foreclosure prevention programs, including:

• Mortgage delinquency rates continued a downward trend and are substantially below year ago levels. In addition, foreclosure completions ticked downward last month, although increased activity is expected in the coming months as firms lift processing delays following the landmark mortgage servicing settlement reached with the five largest banks in early February.

• More than 5.8 million modification arrangements were started between April 2009 and the end of February 2012.

• As of February, more than 970,000 homeowners received a permanent HAMP modification, saving more than $530 on their mortgage payments each month.

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More consumers may be looking to purchase homes with a shift in several key housing market indicators, according to Fannie Mae’s March 2012 consumer attitudinal National Housing Survey.  More Americans now expect both home rental and home purchase prices to increase over the next year.  Nearly half of consumers expect higher rental prices, the highest number recorded since monthly tracking began in June 2010.  These trends may be providing Americans with an increased sense of urgency to buy a home as 73 percent of Americans now believe it is a good time to buy a home, up from 70 percent in February.

Highlights of the survey include:

• Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month, the highest level over the past 12 months.

• On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.9 percent over the next 12 months (up slightly since last month).

• Thirty-nine percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, a five percentage point increase from last month.

• On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, a significant increase since February, and the highest number recorded to date.

• Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, a three percentage point increase from last month and the highest number recorded to date.

• Sixty-six percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up one point since last month, while 30 percent say they would rent, up one point versus last month.

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in February, pulled back slightly in March. The Index now stands at 70.2 (1985=100), down from 71.6 in February. The Present Situation Index, however, increased to 51 from 46.4. The Expectations Index declined to 83 from 88.4 in February.

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved in March, with those claiming business conditions are “good” increasing 14.3 percent from 13.7 percent.  However, those claiming business conditions are “bad” also increased, to 32.7 percent from 31.7 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the job market was mixed.  Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 9.4 percent from 7 percent, while those stating jobs are “hard to get” also rose, to 41 percent from 38.6 percent.

Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook in February than they were in January.  The proportion of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 19.2 percent from 18.9 percent.  However, those anticipating business conditions will worsen also rose, to 13.5 percent from 11.8 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was moderately less upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 17.3 percent from 18.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 18.3 percent from 16.4 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved slightly to 15.8 percent from 15.5 percent.

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San Francisco Chronicle – The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index currently stands at 70.8, up from a revised 61.5 in January, helped by consumers’ improving assessment of the job market.

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Americans’ concerns about key economic and housing issues are beginning to subside, according to results from Fannie Mae’s February 2012 National Housing Survey. Consumers’ attitudes have stabilized across most indicators – including personal finances, housing, and employment – demonstrating their sense that downside risks have abated somewhat compared with late summer and fall of 2011.

Highlights of the survey include:

• The rise in confidence in the economy’s direction continued in February, with 35 percent responding that they think the economy is on the right track, a 5 percentage point increase from January. The percentage of respondents who say the economy is on the wrong track dropped to 57 percent, a decline of 6 percentage points.

• On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months (down slightly since last month).

• Twenty-eight percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months (consistent with last month), while 15 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 1 percentage point since last month). Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same.

• The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose by 3 percentage points to 13 percent, the highest level in more than a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy dropped 1 percentage point to 70 percent this month.

• Sixty-five percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up 1 percentage point since last month, while 29 percent say they would rent, down 1 percentage point versus last month.

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88 from 76.7 in January.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was more favorable in February. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased slightly to 13.3 percent from 13.2 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased to 31.2 percent from 38.3 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also less pessimistic. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased to 6.6 percent from 6.2 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 38.7 percent from 43.3 percent.

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook than they were last month.  The proportion of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.7 percent from 16.7 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 11.8 percent from 14.6 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat.  Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18.7 percent from 16.4 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 16.9 percent from 19.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved to 15.4 percent from 13.8 percent.

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Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey shows that the majority of Americans continue to expect no change in mortgage rates over the next 12 months. However, their expectations for home prices have improved for the fourth month in a row, with respondents expecting prices to go up by 1 percent, on average, during the year. 

Of the consumers surveyed, 44 percent expect their personal financial situation to improve, up from 40 percent a month ago, and 30 percent of Americans believe the economy is on the right track, up from 22 percent last month and up for the third straight month since November 2011.

Highlights of the monthly survey include:

Twenty-eight percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months (up 2 percentage points since last month), while 16 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 2 percentage points since last month). Fifty-one percent say prices will stay the same.

Only 8 percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months, down 2 percentage points from December.

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy stayed at 71 percent in January, while the percentage who say it is a good time to sell dropped by 1 percentage point to 10 percent.

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