Zillow’s Home Value Index declined 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the company recently announced.  For all of 2011, the Index declined 4.7 percent.

The newly released Zillow Home Value Forecast predicts home values will continue declining through December 2012, but with smaller declines in 2012 than 2011. While home values in some individual markets are likely to reach a bottom this year, Zillow does not forecast a definitive national bottom until 2013. The Forecast calls for a national decline of 3.7 percent in 2012.

Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) like Los Angeles, Riverside, Calif., and Phoenix, which were among the hardest-hit in the housing downturn, will likely reach a bottom in home values and will experience home value increases or stability in 2012, according to the Forecast. Other markets that are likely to reach a bottom and see home values increase or remain flat in 2012 are the Baltimore and Washington D.C. MSAs. Markets which may end 2012 without significant increases in home values, but which are likely candidates to see a bottom late in the year are the Dallas, Denver, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla., New York, Pittsburgh, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa, Fla. MSAs.

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U.S. house prices rose 1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from October to November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. The previously reported 0.2 percent decrease in October was revised downward to reflect a 0.7 percent decrease. For the 12 months ending in November, U.S. prices fell 1.8 percent. The U.S. index is 18.8 percent below its April 2007 peak and roughly the same as the February 2004 index level.

The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from October to November ranged from -0.2 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +2.1 percent in the West South Central division.

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CoreLogic recently released its November Home Price Index report, which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. According to the Index, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis in November 2011 compared with November 2010.  Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.6 percent in November 2011 compared with November 2010 and by 1.6 percent in October 2011 compared with October 2010.  Distressed sales include short sales and REO transactions.

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to November 2011) was -32.8 percent.  Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -23.1 percent.

Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 77 are showing year-over-year declines in November, three fewer than in October.

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The average home price nationwide has declined 28.3 percent since the market peaked in June 2006, according to the most-recent Home Price Index by Lender Processing Services.  The LPS HPI summarizes national home prices by tracking monthly prices in more than 13,500 ZIP codes. Within each ZIP code, it tracks five price levels from low to high.

The total value of U.S. housing inventory covered by the LPS HPI stood at $10.6 trillion at the peak. As of the end of August 2011, it was $7.65 trillion. During the period of most rapid price changes, from July 31, 2007, through December 2009, prices declined $56,000. The average annual decline during that time was 13.8 percent.

Since December 2009, prices have fallen more slowly, interrupted by brief seasonal intervals of rising prices. Since then, the LPS HPI national average home price has fallen $20,000. This corresponds to an average annual decline of 3.6 percent. Price changes were largely consistent across the country during August. Prices increased in only five percent of ZIP codes in the LPS HPI. Higher-priced homes had smaller declines: -0.72 percent for the top 20 percent of homes (prices above $321,000) compared with -1 percent for the bottom 20 percent (below $103,000).

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CoreLogic recently released its September Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.1 percent on a month-over-month basis, the second consecutive monthly decline. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 4.1 percent in September 2011 compared with September 2010. 

“Even with low interest rates, demand for houses remains muted. Home sales are down in September and the inventory of homes for sale remains elevated. Home prices are adjusting to correct for the supply-demand imbalance, and we expect declines to continue through the winter. Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI decreased 31.2 percent.  Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change for the same period decreased 21.9 percent.

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