Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

“The great thing in the world is not so much where we stand as in what direction we are moving.” Last week, the financial markets appeared to agree with Oliver Wendell Holmes’ words by looking for some more direction from the Fed after its FOMC Meeting.

While the Fed didn’t say much, they did state that Mortgage Bond holding income and proceeds would be reinvested into Treasuries. This helps the Treasury continue to pump out debt at low rates. But this relationship is a concern to the Stock market, as there is no doubt that this will lead to further problems down the road. In addition to “kicking the can,” the Fed did not provide a game plan on how it could handle deflation, a Japanese type economy, or longer-term inflation. This uncertainty is something that the Stock market hates. As a result, investors pushed Stock prices significantly lower in early trading Thursday – and the cash sale proceeds from Stocks found their way into Bonds.

In other news last week, the Labor Department reported that preliminary Productivity for the 2nd Quarter came in at -0.9%, which was below the 0.1% rise expected…and quite a bit lower from the 3.9% reading for the 1st Quarter. The decline in Productivity was actually the first negative reading since the 4th quarter of 2008. The slowdown in productivity is interesting, as higher productivity does many things. It keeps operating costs lower, lessens the need for hiring, and works to keep prices down. So this unexpectedly weak number, should it become a trend, may work to ease some of the deflation fears and, ironically, could help the labor markets.

Speaking of labor, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims report showed 484,000 people signing up for first-time unemployment benefits. That number was worse than expectations of 465,000 and the highest reading since February’s 498,000. No matter how you slice it, this is a horrible number… and it highlights that the most important element of any real-life economic recovery is still struggling.

According to the report, Continuing Jobless Claims did fall, but that number can be deceiving since the decrease has nothing to do with an improvement in the labor market. In actuality, the decrease in Continuing Claims, which lasts for the first 26 weeks of unemployment, is due to the benefit expiring – and those individuals rolling into the Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefit category. And in that category, due to the recently passed unemployment benefits extension, those collecting Emergency Unemployment Compensation, spiked a whopping, almost incomprehensible, staggering, shocking, (fill in your own favorite descriptor here) 1.2 Million from the prior week to 4.5 Million… and yet the majority of the media overlooked the real facts or were unwilling to report them.

FUTURE EMPLOYMENT MAY BE ON THE MINDS OF TODAY’S COLLEGE STUDENTS, BUT THE MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN SHOULD BE ON HOW TO BEST MANAGE THE FINANCIAL TESTS THEY’LL FACE WHEN THEY’RE ON THEIR OWN. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW FOR FIVE FINANCIAL LESSONS EVERY COLLEGE STUDENT SHOULD LEARN BEFORE HEADING TO SCHOOL.

Read the entire article and see the graphs here.

- Foster Weeks

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

WORKIN’ NINE TO FIVE… WHAT A WAY TO MAKE A LIVIN’…” Dolly Parton. But unfortunately, last week’s Jobs Report was worse than expected, showing more and more people aren’t workin’ nine to five or any other kind of full time job. So what does this mean for our economy and home loan rates? Read on to find out.

In addition, something to keep in mind is that the State governments are now under major pressure because of growing budget deficits. With tax revenues declining and budget cuts needed, States are finally having to make cuts like the private sector already has. As they start to catch up in making cut-backs to headcount, this could cause the unemployment rate to worsen. Not very good news, as an improvement in the labor market is needed to fuel the economic recovery… and especially disappointing, considering the money that has been injected to try and remedy this situation.

Also in the news, the Commerce Department reported last week that Personal Spending and Incomes were unchanged in June, due to a slowing of the economic recovery in the spring. In addition, the Savings Rate increased as consumers cut back on spending.

Why is all this significant… and what does it have to do with interest rates? It has to do with something called the velocity of money. Even though the government keeps pumping money into the system, nothing happens until that money is spent or lent, and passes from one hand to another, or one business to another. The speed at which this money passes between parties is called the velocity of money. With the job market still very sluggish, consumers aren’t spending much money these days… and businesses are still reluctant to spend money making investments in their business. With present velocity at low levels, inflation remains subdued… however, once velocity increases, the excess money in the system will cause inflation.

And remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates… which means that even the scent of inflation can cause home loan rates to worsen.

Read the entire article and see the graphs here.

- Foster Weeks

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

“Over there… over there…” The old patriotic song hit it on the head, in terms of what has been driving market action lately… news from overseas. In the absence of US economic reports last week, Stocks received some help from headlines “over there.” Late last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates at a record low – which wasn’t really a surprise, given the sharp economic slowdown and uncertainty in Europe.

But in a separate briefing, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark stated that “the worst of the sovereign debt crisis seems to be over.” He went on to say that tensions within the financial markets have “calmed down” as the enormous $442 Billion collection of one-year loans by the ECB went without any problems. Although the Stock market may benefit from such calming commentary, the reality is the worst may not be over yet. In fact, rumors are surfacing that Italy may be the next country to reveal debt problems – making this a story to continue watching.

Read the entire article here.

Foster Weeks publishes a weekly mortgage report which is updated every Monday morning. How is this affecting the San Francisco real estate market? Read our weekly and monthly market reports. Here’s what Mr. Weeks says about last week’s activity:

What happens in Washington doesn’t stay in Washington! And there was a lot happening in Washington this past week, between the Fed’s two-day meeting and actions in Congress. So how will all of these happenings impact you…and home loan rates, which are near all-time lows? Read on for details.

Last week, the Fed decided to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 0.25%, and also reiterated in its Policy Statement that economic conditions warrant keeping the Fed Funds Rate low for an “extended period”. First, what is the Fed Funds Rate? It is the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, and it is used as a base rate that many other lending rates are based on, for consumer and business loans.

And second, why is the “extended period” language significant? The Fed has to time very carefully any action – or even hints of action – on raising the Fed Funds Rate, which they have held at the lowest levels in history for the last year and a half. If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a “double dip” recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates…and signs of inflation could definitely cause home loan rates to worsen from their current low levels.

Even though there have been more concerns expressed by various Fed members about inflation and the long term effects of keeping the Fed Funds Rate too low for too long, the economic data recently reported (such as the weak Jobs Report and other reports showing inflation is tame at present) as well as the ongoing issues in Europe helped the “extended period” language to survive through another Fed meeting. This is an important issue to keep watch on.

Congress was just as busy as the Fed last week. On Thursday, the Financial Reform Bill was finally reconciled between the House and Senate. The final draft includes a Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which will have the authority to police banks for mortgage lending and credit-card abuses. The bill will move to the President for his signature once both houses of Congress approve the final version.

However, Congress did not pass the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit. Note: This extension was only going to be for people who were under contract by the initial April 30th deadline, extending their June 30th closing deadline to September 30th. The extension was part of the larger Jobs Bill, which included State aid and an extension of unemployment benefits for people out of work more than six months – and would have added $33B to the deficit. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors is saying that up to 30% of homes that went under contract by the April 30th deadline of the Homebuyer Tax Credit will likely not close by the current June 30th deadline.

There was other housing news last week, as both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales were well below expectations. While a decline in sales was expected after people were racing to qualify for the April 30th Tax Credit deadline, the numbers are still a bit of a disappointment.

However – home prices remain affordable, and home loan rates are far from disappointing at the moment…last week they reached all time low levels! If you or anyone you know would like to learn more about this exceptional opportunity, please don’t hesitate to call or email. Or forward this newsletter on to anyone you think may benefit and I’d be happy to consult with them free of charge.

The FASTEST WAY TO TAKE THE FUN OUT OF ANY ROADTRIP IS TO COME HOME WITH A SPEEDING TICKET. CHECK OUT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW BELOW TO LEARN MORE ABOUT AVOIDING SPEED TRAPS.

Read the entire article and see the graphs here.

- Foster Weeks