"The needle isn’t moving. Activity as we went into
the Fourth of July weekend stayed about the same. The only observable
changes were a greater number of the open homes experienced slower traffic,
although first time opens in desirable locations are still drawing crowds
of buyers, even on a holiday weekend, as evidenced by the 40 groups
that came through a Petaluma open home. The second observation was we
received fewer multiple offers in the East and North Bay and the Monterey
Peninsula. The SF/Peninsula down to Los Altos is still the only place
in the Bay Area that continues to see good numbers of multiple offers,
although it too is seeing the percentages decrease.
"Price reductions continue as listings stay on the market longer.
Pricing and presentation are even more important as inventories increase
and buyers have more choices. Month’s supply of inventory varies
widely from a low of 3.6 months in San Francisco to a high of 7 months
in Sonoma and Central Contra Costa counties; San Mateo weighs in at
3.85, northern Santa Clara at 5 months, Marin at 5 months and Alameda
at 5.7 months. Close to 4 months is moving from a seller’s to buyer’s
market, 4-6 months is the balanced market and over 6 months is a buyer’s
market. These numbers are for single family homes and condos. One must
remember that these numbers are for large geographic areas and two classes
of properties; there can be significant variation depending on market
places within counties and property type.
"What is interesting to note, is that with the exception of the
North Bay “days on the market” is still 20 days or less. Yes,
up from last year, but still historically low. Also median price (not
dramatically like in the last two years) is up in every county except
Marin. This could be caused due to the fact that we have had a rapid
build up of inventory (listing frenzy), unrealistic pricing, buyers
have had more choices therefore not having a sense of urgency as we
experienced in previous markets and most significantly that the well
priced and staged listings are selling quickly. The demand is there,
but only for what buyers perceive as properties with value.
"Here are the numbers for the week: 4 offices reported increasing
inventories, 18 steady and 5 decreasing---3 offices showed increasing
sales activity, 19 steady and 5 decreasing."
Avram Goldman
President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area
