"The market is a kaleidoscope. It has many colors and variations.
The picture changes every week. The design changes quickly. There are
elements that remain the same and those that change erratically.
"Open home activity remains positive overall. The buyers are out
there and writing contracts or about to on the most desirable properties---right
price and right presentation. Interest rates have been falling over
the last 60 days, although clouds on the horizon could mean that they
could rise soon according to the Fed. Those sellers that are adjusting
prices to meet market reality are finding their homes in escrow.
"Listing inventories continue to decline slowly. We are still
under the inventories of 2002 and 2001. This is a step in the right
direction. Those sellers that are not prepared to sell in this market
are either lease their homes or take them off the market. This is creating
a view that the market is not overcrowded- or oversupplied. This change
is prompting a greater sense of urgency among buyers.
"Negotiation is the name of the game. Transactions are taking
longer to put into escrow and negotiations last through the escrow in
some cases. It requires patience on both sides. Emotions run high, making
it challenging both for sellers and buyers. Agents can make a difference
in keeping both sides talking and rational.
"As has been the case most of the year and particularly most recently,
the upper end of the market in those areas with reduced inventories
is active. We have seen a number of sales in the upper single digit
and double digit million dollar categories. Obviously those with the
means are still seeing real estate as a prime long term investment.
"Multiple offers occurred in over 60% of our offices. The strongest
areas of multiple offers continue to be SF and the Peninsula. We continue
to see a rise of activity in Sonoma county and parts of Alameda county
(north and central). Contra Costa county continues to be the sluggish
in sales and Marin county (except in the most affordable areas) has
slowed in recent weeks.
"The most positive news is that our open sales volume in October
was only off 14% from last October. This is significant, as we have
been running in the low 20’s most of the year. At this point it
looks like the market is settling into a sustainable pace. This could
be the soft landing that a number of economists have been talking about---a
market that is reaching equilibrium.
"Here are the numbers for the week: 6 offices reported increasing
inventories, 17 steady and 9 declining----8 offices showed increasing
sales activity, 16 steady and 8 decreasing (that’s balance)."
Avram Goldman
President and COO
Coldwell Banker SF/Bay Area
